Anthony Scaramucci is forced to broadcast through the media an optimistic view on the prospects of the digital asset market against the background of the problems faced by the funds of SkyBridge Capital, headed by him, due to the crypto winter. But he really has reason to believe in a favorable scenario. The ongoing restructuring processes of a number of problematic industry players (Three Arrows Capital, Celsius Network, BlockFi) with the participation of FTX, Binance and venture capital firms have reduced the degree of uncertainty that prevailed over the market. The improvement in the market conditions softened the spring of sales, which led to a more balanced state of the market. Among other things, this was manifested in the metrics of the crypto derivatives market, the termination of the conversion of USDT to fiat, and the reduction of the stETH to ETH spread. The market switched to the upcoming The Merge on the Ethereum network in September amid the appearance of additional staking options for institutions. The first and second cryptocurrencies by capitalization have reached the realized price – the indicator has proven its reliability in determining the cyclical bottom.

Nevertheless, it is not worth counting on the continuation of the July rally.

On-chain indicators indicate the persistence of low network activity of users. The cryptocurrency market remains dependent on the monetary policy of the Fed, which has not yet reached a turning point in the trend of rate increases. Moreover, recent speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve make us extremely skeptical about the prospects for technology stocks, especially in view of the seasonally weak August-September. It will take time to form a medium-term bottom in bitcoin. According to the calculations of analysts Grayscale and Glassnode based on the market cycles in the past of bitcoin, a return to the growth trajectory is possible only by the spring of next year. By that time, we can expect to reach a peak at the Fed’s key rate. Up to this point, bitcoin can test the mentioned Scaramucci at least $17,500. The chances of this happening in the foreseeable future are still definitely higher compared to the option of rising to $40,000.